中国经济的高速增长──不具转型危机的转型?

China’s Rapid Economic Growth：A Transition without Transition Crisis

高投资需求是中国经济增长的主要动力。国有企业可能因三种因素而触发转型危机：现有亏损和坏账的真实数据比目前的统计数据恐怕要高；如果继续拖延国有企业重组，如果保持、甚至软化预算约束，如果债务升级，那么长期债务积累的危险将会增加；如果货币、财政和工业政策出现急转弯，对国有企业实行硬预算约束，而造成大批企业倒闭、失业急剧上升、投资减少及金融体系重大冲击。要避免转型危机，就必须把渐进转型所“创造”的时间果断用于推动重组。财政扩张对需求会有短期影响，抵抗通货紧缩，而不造成通货膨胀压力，但对未来能否保持持续增长在很大程度上取决于消费者和投资者的行为。

Abstract High investment demand is the major driving force of China’s economic growth． Three factors related to state－owned enterprises may trigger a transition crisis． Firstly the actual data of present losses and bad accounts are probably higher than the current statistics． Secondly if the restructuring of state－owned enterprises is delayed further budget constraint is maintained and even softened debts are escalated then the risk of long－term debt accumulation will increase． Thirdly if there is a sharp turn in monetary fiscal and industrial policies hard budget constrainst is imposed upon state－owned enterprises then a large number of enterprises will collapse unemployment will increase sharply investment will decrease and the financial system will face a major shock． In order to avoid the transition crisis it is necessary that the time“created”by gradual transition be used to push restructuring． In the short run fiscal expansion is effective in changing demand and fighting against deflation without creating inflationary pressure． But whether fiscal expansion is effective in keeping continuous growth in the long run will largely depend on the behaviour of consumers and investors．