人工神经网络方法在赤霉病预报中的应用研究

The Application of Ann to Prediction of Winter Wheat Scab in Area of Taihu Lake

通过统计分析 ,选取与江苏省太湖地区小麦赤霉病发生程度显著相关的前期海温作为预报因子 ,并结合对小麦赤霉病病穗率序列进行拓展 ,采用人工神经网络的 BP网络模型进行预报赤霉病的初步试验 。

Based on the data of SST and winter wheat scab in Taihu lake of Jiangsu Province from 1951 to 1998, the statistical analyses about the influence of abnormality of SST in pacific round equator on occurrence of winter wheat scab in Taihu lake area were carried out. It was found that situation of wheat scab would often be heavier in the next year when ENSO begin or last. Finally, a mixed long term prediction model of wheat scab was developed with the method of ANN (artificial neural network).