ECMWF 850hPa风场对长江流域强降雨预报能力的检验

Test on the Forecast Capability of 850hPa Wind of ECMWF Model for the Heavy Rainfall over Changjiang River in 1998

利用 ECMWF85 0 h Pa风场模式的 2 4、48、72小时风场预报格点资料和风场实况资料 ,对 1 998年 6～ 8月长江流域出现的 1 3次致洪暴雨、大暴雨天气过程的85 0 h Pa风场和 5 0 0 h Pa、85 0 h Pa上暴雨的影响天气系统进行了预报能力的分析检验 ,所得结果有利于数值预报产品的释用和实时预报业务的订正使用 ,以提高暴雨预报能力。

By using the grid dataset of wind field at 850hPa(24,48 and 72hour) of ECMWF model and real time dataset of objective wind field, the forecast capability of 850hPa wind and the weather systems of ECMWF model is tested for the 13 rainstorms processes causing the flood of Changjiang River basin from June to August of 1998. Results are in favor of understanding the numerical weather forecast products and correcting real time forecast operation, and improving the forecast ability for rainstorms as well.