摘要
暴雨泥石流的发生是泥石流沟的地面条件组合达到某一能级后，由降雨激发而产生的一种自然灾害现象。通过分析降雨与地面条件相互作用的关系，在甘洛试验区１９８８～１９９０年观测试验资料分析的基础上，首次采用数量化理论（Ⅰ）基本原理，建立成昆铁路暴雨诱发泥石流灾害的预报量化数学模型。模型的建立能使人们直接利用泥石流沟的地面条件组合来预测诱发泥石流所需的降雨量参数，再利用实际降雨量与预测降雨量参数对比，预测泥石流灾害发生的可能性，从而形成一套方法简单，铁路运营部门易于运用的科学方法。对建立的数学模型采用了成昆线其它泥石流沟资料进行检验，计算值与实测值接近。
The rainstorm debris flow, caused by rainstorm, is a natural disaster phenomena, once earth’s surface composition conditions meet a certain energy limit, it will takes place. Applying the basic principle of theory of quantification(Ⅰ), the mathematical model of debris flow predication was established according to the 1988～1990 observing data from Ganluo experimental station along Chengdu-Kunming railway. After tested by the other debris flow data, its results is satisfactory.
