拉尼娜持续年的渤海海冰

Sea Ice in the Bohai Sea During La Nina Years

通过对１９９９／２０００年冬季环流背景资料的分析，发现西太平洋副热带高压和极涡的变化是影响我国冬季天气气候特征变化和渤海海冰生消的重要因素，而副热带高压和极涡等大气活动中心的变化又与赤道东太平洋的厄尔尼诺现象及拉尼娜现象有关。因此，可以通过前期赤道东太平洋海表水温的变化来预测我国冬季天气气候变化和渤海海冰的状况。

Through analysis of the 1999/2000 background field of winter circumfluence, we find that the changes of West Pacific subtropic high and polar vortex are important factors that affect the changes of winter climates characters of our countrys and decay or melt of sea ice in the Bohai Sea. Because the change of atmospheric activity center such as subtropic high and polar vortex is related to El Nino and La Nina, we can forecast the change of winter climate and sea ice in the Bohai Sea.