水库洪水预报子系统的风险分析

Risk Analysis for Reservoir Flood Forecasting System

将改进的一次二阶矩AFOSM法应用于水库洪水预报子系统的风险分析中。在AFOSM法框架下，对水库洪水预报子系统的风险做了定义和描述，并以柴河水库为例，对风险率进行了定量计算，表明其方法是可行的。

：This thesis applies AFOSM method to reservoir flood forecasting system at first． Under AFOSM design，the thesis described and defined the risk of reservoir flood forecasting system． Taking the Chaihe Reservoir as an example，the paper explained calculating method of risk value．