制度变迁与粮食生产的长波

Discovery of Grain Productions Long Waves and Role of Institutional Changes

本文首先分析了中国粮食发展的路径和将来变化趋势 ,然后使用Logestic模型提取趋势项后 ,对粮食产量的残差序列进行了谱分析 ,分解出粮食生产的各种周期性波动。最后 ,集中对长波的形成原因进行讨论 ,认为农村经济制度的变迁在其中扮演了重要角色。

This paper has first analyzed the path of grain development in China.the residual serial of grain product after which its trend is taken out is analyzed with spectra technique,and various circle waves of the grain production are descovered.The causes forming long waves are mainly discussed,and institutional changes in the rural economy play an important role in the formation of long waves.