利用混合海气耦合模式的气候异常预报试验

STUDIES OF ENSO-RELATED CLIMATE PREDICTION WITH A HYBRID OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL

用混合海气耦合模式长期积分的模拟结果 ,分析了模式大气的年际变化性 ;用 1 979～1 994年间的“回报”个例 ,探讨了该模式对ENSO引起的全球气候异常的预报。结果表明 :模式能较好地再现与ENSO相关的全球大气环流的年际变化特征 ;对预报而言 ,模式较高的预报技巧主要分布在热带地区 ,全球热带大气具有较稳定的 1年左右的可预报时效 ;基本上可预报中、高纬地区由ENSO引起的冬、夏季大气环流异常 (包括气温和降水 ) ,超前时间可达 9个月至 1年。

With results of the long term simulation of a hybrid coupled model, the interannual variability of the model atmosphere is investigated. With the prediction cases during the period of 1979 to 1994, the predictive capability of the model for ENSO caused global climate anomalies is discussed. Results indicate that the model can successfully reproduce the global ENSO related atmospheric interannual variability. Higher predictive skill is mainly distributed over the tropics, where the predictable lead time is about one year. The ENSO related winter and summer atmospheric circulation anomalies (including air temperature and precipitation) can be basically predicted with the lead time being up 9 to 12 months.