技术的演化与锁定

The evolution and lock in of technology

试用演化经济理论研究与市场用户具有动态回报递增和动态回报递减关系的两类技术的演化问题 .通过建立一个动态随机系统模型 ,论证了这类技术演化的长期均衡对应于某个函数的稳定不动点 ,提出了动态回报递增效应技术演化的多重均衡性和主导技术出现的可能性 ,分析了动态回报递减效应技术演化的不同特征 。

This paper focuses on the competition between technologies with increasing and decreasing returns to adoption. We present a dynamic stochastic model to explore the properties of the evolution of technology. These long run outcomes of the evolutionary process, we show, correspond to the stable fixed points of a decision function, and can easily be identified. The evolution of technology under increasing returns to adoption (the probability of adoption rises with the share of the market) could show multiple equilibrium and may drive the adopter market to a single dominant technologies and cause lock in, with small events early on “selecting” the technology that takes over. However, there is no guarantee that the 'fittest' technology (in the long run sense) will be the one that survives. Under diminishing returns, static analysis is sufficient: the outcome is unique, insensitive to the order in which choices are made, and insensitive to small events that occur during the formation of the market. The reasonable government policy was suggested for the technology based parts where increasing returns dominate. Policies that are appropriate to success in high tech production and international trade would encourage industries to be aggressive in seeking out product and process improvements.