时变参数系统的自适应Kalman滤波在水文预报中的应用

Application of self-adaptive Kalman filtering wave technique in river peak discharge forecasting

用时变参数系统的自适应Kalman滤波预报方法 ,对时间序列模型进行最优和次优预报 ,用于解决河流年最大洪峰流量时变参数系统的自适应预报问题 ,通过松花江哈尔滨水文站年最大洪峰流量的实例计算表明 。

This paper employed an algorithm of self_adaptive Kalman filtering wave optimal and suboptimal prediction to time series model. The method is applied to solve adaptive forecasting problem for river annual peak discharge time varying parameter systems. An example of the Songhua River Harbin Hydrology Station annual peak discharge is given to show the usefulness of the forecasting results.