地震前兆异常的综合概率与中强震发生的关系

Relationship between the synthetic probability of seismicprecursory anomalies and the occurrence of medium and strong earthquakes

通过河北省各前兆学科对 1 970年 - 2 0 0 0年 6月观测资料的系统清理 ,应用综合概率方法提取出了多学科多个前兆因子判断中强地震的综合概率指标 (P≥ 0 .5 5 ) ,其结果对河北省及其邻区 Ms5 .0级以上地震对应效果较好 ,R值评分为 0 .46 7。

The observation data of each precursory approach from 1970 to June 2000 in Hebei Province are processed.Based on the method of synthetic probability,the index of synthetic probability to determine medium and strong earthquakes with multidisciplinary precursor is picked up(P≥0.55).The results are corresponding well with the Ms≥5.0 earthquakes in Hebei province ad its adjacent area.The R-value for the method is 0.467.It indicates that the method has some prediction ability in some extent.