地下水物理参量强地震中短期预报方法的检验

Test on medium and short term prediction methods for strong earthquakes with groundwater level parameters

应用“九五”子专题“地下水物理参量异常识别标志体系及预报方法研究”的研究思路、预报方法和指标对河北省井网 1 983年以来的水位观测资料进行了全时程扫描。结果表明“群井异常年频次法”在河北及邻近地区中强地震前有较明显的异常显示 ,应用效果较好。对该方法进行了预报效能 R值评分 ,评价结果表明漏报率低 。

Based on the methods derived from the project of 'Study on anomaly recognition for ground water parameters and prediction methods',the well-network data of underground water level since 1983 in Hebei province are processed in the whole time and space range.The results show that the method of 'yearly frequency method of group well anomalies'can detect obvious anomalies before medium and strong earthquakes in Hebei and its adjacent area,and has good prdiction effect.The R.value evaluation for its prediction ability is performed.The results show the fail rate for prediction is lower and the false rate is higher.