基于灰平面的综合事故率区间预测方法

Study on Method for Zone Prediction of Integrated Accident Rate Based on Grey Panel

对伤亡事故的统计预测可对其事故数目进行预测 ,也可对其综合事故率进行预测 ,笔者首次提出基于灰平面的综合事故率区间预测法。基于层次分析法 ,建立了伤亡事故的综合事故率 ,并利用灰平面法中的上下限法对其进行了区间预测 ,结果是合理可靠的。此法有较高的精度和可信度 。

The integrated accident rate of a factory based on the analytical hierarchy process is established. By up and down zone method of the grey panel, the zone of the accident rate is provided. The results prove that the method is accurate and reliable.