厄尔尼诺事件对黑龙江省低温洪涝灾害的影响及其预报

Effection of El Nino Event on Low-temperature disaster and Flood in Heilongjiang Province and its Prediction

在研究厄尔尼诺 (拉尼娜 )事件对黑龙江省低温洪涝灾害影响的基础上 ,提出一种表征厄尔尼诺的指数 (ENI)。根据ENI谱分析结果 ,提出了一种厄尔尼诺事件和拉尼娜事件的统计预测方法。经 1997年对强厄尔尼诺和1998年对拉尼娜事件预报检验证明 ,该方法可行 ,可在区域和省级短期气候预测中应用。

Through studying the effect of El Nino(La Nin)on low-temperature disaster and flood in Heilongjiang province,we defined an ENI to express EI Nino events.Based on this ENI we established a statistics forecasting method for EI Nino amd La Nina events by using spectral anaysis ^After the verifications of 1998' strong EI Nino event and 1998' La Nina event,the method tumed out to be good and played an important role in short-term climate prediction at regional and provincial level.