空运市场需求预测的自适应动态建模方法

Dynamic Adaptive Forecasting Algorithm of Air Traffic

根据空运市场需求时间序列的季节性、趋势性及随机扰动性的特点，利用随机过程和时间序列分析手段，建立了空运市场需求预测的自适应平滑模型，并利用卡尔曼滤波法解决了模型参数的动态估计问题。

 Based on random process theorx and time series analxsis the paper advances an adaptive smoothing model suiting seasonalitx trends and randomness of air traffic series． The Kalman filter technique can be applied to get the model coefficients dxnamicallx．