2000年广西壮族自治区酸沉降预测

Forecast of Acid Precipitation in Guangxi by the Year 2000.

以我国酸沉降敏感区——“湘桂走廊”作为控制域,预测广西壮族自治区2000年酸沉降趋势.采用弹性系数法和趋势外推法预测了2000年原煤消耗量与SO_2排放量.并用区域模式与局地模式相叠加的方法预测了不削减方案下2000年“湘桂走廊”的SO_2浓度及硫沉降趋势.用趋势外推法估算出2000年降水pH值.

The research of this paper was carried out under the National Seventh Five-Year Key Program-Research on the Integrated Control Strategy of Acid Rain in South China. The paper considers a sensitive region of our country, the Xianggui Corridor, as the control region to predict the trends of acid precipitation in Guangxi to the year 2000. Coal consumptions and SO2 emissions in 2000 were estimated by the method of elastic coefficient and trend extrapolation. By means of combining a regional-scale model with a local model, SO2 concentrations and sulfur depositions in Xianggui Corridor without control in 2000 were predicted. pH value of precipitation in the same year was estimated by trend extrapolation.