地区电网中长期负荷的模糊聚类法预测

Forecast the Medium-long Term Electrical Power need in Local Power System byFuzzy Classification Method

结合最佳聚类Ｆ选优法的应用,本文提出了一个改进的模糊聚类电力负荷中长期预测的新算法。应用此方法进行年用电量的实例计算,具有高的预测精度。通过对增城地区经济、负荷发展的情况的分析,对增城地区２００５年、２０１０年的年用电量作出了预测。

This paper offers a modified fuzzy classification calculation method for medium-long term power need forecasting and use it to calculate the year need of electrical power. It is proved that the new method have higher accuracy. This paper also analyzed the economic?power need situation of Zengcheng area, and forecast the year power need of 2005, 2010 in this area.