基于时间序列的灰色预测技术在估产模型中的应用

The application of time-sequence gray forecasting methods in crop production statistics models

在建立估产模型过程中 ,引进基于时间序列的灰色预测技术 ,通过对样本点建立基于时间序列的灰色预测模型和常规的多元线性回归气象模型的分析比较 ,试图找到一种计算简单、数据要求少而精度较高、时效性较好的建模方法 .为时间序列预测在农作物估产方面的应用作出一点探索 .

During the construction of the crop production statistics models, the paper introduced the gray forecasting methods based on time sequence and constructed the gray forecasting models. Through comparing these models with the common multi factors linearity regress weather models, the apper tried out to find out a kind of high precision and efficient model construction method which needs few data and simple operation, and made some research on the application of time sequence forecasting methods in crop production statistics .