PERT行为时间参数近似计算公式选优

Optimizing estimation of PERT activity time parameters

自 PERT产生以来 ,管理学界出现了许多计算 PERT时间参数的近似公式 ,文章将其中的三点近似公式进行了汇总和对比。通过与 Beta分布系列量化比较发现它们的精度相差较大 ,其中早期 PERT公式有非常差的精度 ,而新出现的一些三点近似公式却有着优异的精度表现。这为

This paper compares a number of three point approximations which have been used to estimate means and variances of random variables and to serve as substitutes for the Beta distributions of PERT. Numerical results from estimating means and variances of a set of Beta distributions indicate surprisingly large differences in accuracy among approximations in current use, with the accuracy of the most popular Tradition PERT being fairly poor.The work here offers an attractive idea to the estimation of currently used approximations in PERT model.