边坡稳定分析的模糊概率法

The stability analysis of slope by fuzzy probability method

鉴于边坡工程中同时存在的随机性和模糊性 ,文章在可靠性分析的基础上提出了用模糊概率的方法来计算边坡的稳定性 ,得出了边坡失稳的模糊概率 ,并探讨了隶属函数的形式及有关参数对模糊概率的影响。计算表明 :降正态形分布及戒上形分布的隶属函数形式能较好地反应边坡失稳的模糊性 ,所求模糊概率 Pf 较为合理 ;功能函数的变异性越大 ,隶属函数形式对模糊概率 Pf的影响越小。

In order to solve the problem of randomness and fuzziness in slope engineering, based on the reliability analysis, a fuzzy probability method is presented to evaluate the stability of a slope and the fuzzy probability of slope failure is obtained. The effect of types and some parameters of subordinate function on the fuzzy probability is also discussed. The calculation results show that the subordinate functions of descending normal type and guard up type are better than the others because they can reflect well the fuzziness of slope failure, and the larger of the variation of the function Z, the smaller of the effect of types of subordinate function on the fuzzy probability P f .