高新技术项目投资风险的分析与测度

Analysis and measurement of venture of investment into high technology projects

高科技产业是知识经济社会的重要支柱 ,高科技产业的发展需要资金的支持 .因而高科技产业投资成为推动经济增长的重要动力 .但高科技投资领域的极高风险使得投资者在选择项目时除了要进行常规的投资可行性分析外 ,还要对投资项目进行深入的分析与评价 ,以判断其是否具有投资价值 .基于这一需要 ,从技术、生产、市场、经营管理、金融和环境等各个方面提出了高新技术项目投资风险的综合评价指标体系 ,运用层次分析法和摸糊数学方法建立了基于多因素模糊综合评价的高新技术项目投资风险定量测度模型 ,并通过应用实例验证了其可行性和实用性 .

High technology industry, which is the main prop of knowledge economy society, needs capital support for its development. Therefore, investment into high technology industry acts as important power in economic growth. However the investors must take prudent action because of the extremely high risks in this field. Besides conventional feasibility analysis, the investors should judge the risk factors in detail to determine the investment value of a particular high technology project. Based on this requirement, this paper presents a comprehensive indicator system for venture evaluation of investment into high technology projects from the angels of technology, manufacture, market, management, finance and environment. The authors use AHP method and fuzzy sets to establish a multifactor hierarchy fuzzy overall evaluation model for appraising investment venture of high technology projects. The model proves to be feasible and practical by living examples. All the research will be helpful for enterprises, especially venture investment companies to make investment decisions.