流域可持续发展的系统动力学预警方法研究

Study on Early Warning Methods of System Dynamics of River Basin Sustainable Development

流域可持续发展是以流域作为特殊区域的一种可持续发展模式 ,如何度量可持续发展状况以及度量发展模式是否具备可持续性 ,是目前研究和关注的热点。本文提出了流域可持续发展分析的新思路——系统动力学预警方法 ,并结合实例进行了分析研究 ;建立了流域可持续发展预警模型 ,通过可持续发展能力指数调整流域发展策略 ,拟定不同政策方案 ,进行了仿真研究 ,通过对各种政策方案下仿真结果的分析和评价 ,得出的对策意见和预警结果符合实际情况 ,为流域制定发展规划、调节各项政策提供了理论及方法、依据和决策支持。

Sustainable development of river basin is a sort of development mode with covering area of river basin as study area. How to measure the state of sustainable development and the mode of sustainable development is the focus of present study and consideration. This paper puts forward a new way to analyses the sustainable development of river basin,it is the early warning method of system dynamics. And makes an analysis ans study of demonstration with teh statistical data. This paper sets up the early warning model of river basin sustainable development in system dynamics wiht the index of sustainable develooping ability to adjust and control the tactics of the development of river basin,drwa up different policy plans,and carry on trueimitating research. By means of the analysis of the various projects, we can find the methods to deal with it and give the results of early warning, to adjust polices and make developing plans for the sake of better development of river basin.