潜在游客市场与旅游产品生命周期——系统动力学模型方法

Study on the Potential Tourists and Life cycle of Tourism Produnct A System Dynamics Approach

旅游业中的许多投资决策和经营决策的有效性都取决于旅游产品的周期特性 ,旅游设施的投资商往往按历史的增长趋势来推测预期的游客增长 ,本研究建立了旅游产品周期的一般性的系统动力学模型 ,利用软件提供的模拟环境 ,了解影响旅游产品周期的市场特点 ,由此提出相应的决策建议。

The effectiveness of investment decisions and other managerial decision largely depends on the life cycle of tourism products. Risks are generated if the life cycle process of tourism products determined by the potential tourism market is unknown to the decision makers. However, the investors in tourism industries and industrial advisors normally postulate the tourist growth based on the past trend by applying linear regression functions and ignore the non linear characteristics of tourist market. The growth rate of the tourists is always speculated to increase and leads to the oversupply of tourism facilities and investment. A system dynamics model of the life cycle of a generic tourism product is build for. It is expected through the computer simulation,learning can be obtainded to understand the non linearity and dynamic nature of the tourism products and effective policies will be explored.