出口对湖南经济增长带动作用的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis on Exports Lead Hunan Economic Growth

采用协整检验 (co- integration)分析技术和 Granger- Causality检验方法 ,对湖南省的出口与经济增长关系进行了实证分析 ,结果表明 ,湖南省的出口、进口与 GDP之间存在唯一的协整关系 ,出口增长带动经济增长 ,而经济增长对出口增长没有影响。接着采用统计计量指标 ,对湖南省 10多年来出口对经济增长的贡献与拉动效果进行了客观的分析和评价 ,以认清定位 ,找出问题 ,为湖南省制定外贸出口政策提供依据。

This paper first test the relationship between the exports and economic growth by using approaches of co integration techniques and Granger causality test of Hunan. It is found that there exists a unique co integration relationship among exports,imports and GDP,and there is a unidirectional Granger causality from exports to economic growth;then we objective analysis and appraise exports affects and contribute to economic growth by using statistic indices of Hunan in the past over ten years,accordingly find out problem and get a clear understanding of the situation,and provide basis for Hunan province enacts exports policies.