当前中国宏观经济分析——兼论现阶段中国经济周期的阶段

Analysis of Current Macro-Economy of China and Concurrently the Stage of Its Business Cycle

分析当前中国宏观经济形势 ,其实就是判断中国经济目前所处周期的阶段。但是 ,在实践中要区分周期的四个阶段或转折点 ,是极其困难的。本文从两个层次考察当前中国经济周期的阶段。首先是产出缺口理论、总需求—总供给 (AD—AS)模型、IS—LM模型这几种工具的综合分析 ;其次分析GDP增长率、失业率、价格指数这些重要宏观经济变量。这些工具和变量中 ,最有价值的是产出缺口理论和价格指数。通过对这些工具和变量的分析 ,本文的最后结论是 :当前中国经济确实出现了明显转机 ,出现了回升的系列迹象 ,正在步入复苏阶段 ,但并未真正稳定走出低谷或萧条。

Analysis of current Macro-economy of China is in fact the same as keeping an eye on the current stage of its business cycle.There are four stages or turning points in a business cycle,but it is difficult for economists to recognize them in practice.The author observes the business cycle of China at two levels:one is analyzing comprehensively the output gap theory,AD-AS and IS-LM models,another is analyzing so important macro economic variables as GDP growth rate,unemployment rate and price index,among which the most important ones are the output gap theory and price index.After fully analyzing the variables and models,the author comes to the conclusion that China*ss economy does show a clear favorable turn and a trend of resuscitation,but has not been yet out of the stagnancy.