长波、创新与美国的新经济

Long Cycle, Innovation and American New Economy

美国新经济“一高两低”的现象 ,超出了传统宏观经济学的解释能力。作者运用熊彼特的长波与创新理论 ,阐述了长波、创新与美国新经济的关系 ,揭示了新经济的本质及其发展方向。本文认为 ,90年代发源于美国的信息技术革命作为一次重大基本创新将会引致世界范围内的新一轮经济长波 ,并由此带来一个较长的经济繁荣期 ,同时也将会弱化传统的经济周期 ,增强经济自身的稳定性。

High growth and low inflation and unemployment in the American economy is beyond the ability of explanation of the orthodoxy macroeconomics. This paper, by employing Schumpeterian argument of long cycle and innovation, expounds the relationship between long cycle, innovation and American New Economy and explores the nature and orientation of the New Economy. This paper argues that IT revolution originated in America in the 1990s is a fundamental innovation. It will lead to the world-wide economy to a new round of long economic cycle and a relatively longer period of economic prosperity. Also, it will weaken the traditional economic cycle and strengthen economic stability.