天祝草甸、草原草场植被生物量形成的气象条件及预测模型

Meteorological conditions and forecast model of grass biomass in alpine meadow grassland at Tianzhu, Gansu province, China

通过分析得出 :影响天祝县草甸、草原草场地上生物量的主要气象因素是热量和水分。用积分回归法分析了牧草生长发育各时段单位因子变化量对年产量的影响程度及正负效应时段。并用逐步回归法将气温和降水作为预报因子得出牧草生物量气候模型 ,预报误差 6 %～ 15%。

The results of analysing the meterological and grass biomass yield from 1956～1995 and 1985～1995, respectively, quantity of heat and water are two main factors which affect grass biomass. Using method of integral regression, effect of varying amounts per factor on annual yield and period of positive or negative effect during each growing stage of grasses were given. Meanwhile, using method of stepwise regression, climate model of grass biomass yield were determined by forecast factors of temperature and precipitation. The forecast error was between 6% and 15%.