中国均衡实际有效汇率:一个总量一般均衡分析

China′s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: An Aggregated General Equilibrium Analysis

亚洲金融危机时期中国实行事实上的盯住美元制度 ,同时亚洲各国的汇率水平进行了重新调整。本文探讨在亚洲金融危机以前及危机期间中国实际有效汇率的“均衡”水平。假定一系列不同的贸易差额 ,我们运用扩展了的Devarajan Lewis Robinson三商品一般均衡模型估计均衡实际有效汇率的不同时间路径。模型的关键要素是要有进口品和出口品价格指数的时间序列资料。鉴于这些价格指数从其他渠道无法获得 ,作者利用贸易数字构造了这些指数。研究发现在亚洲金融危机之前的 4年内中国的实际有效汇率低于均衡汇率 ,这部分地缘于外汇储备的快速累积。与事实相反 ,如果假设在此期间 ,每年不超过 1 0 %的出口收入转化为外汇储备 ,则中国的实际有效汇率将会比现在高 5%到 1 2 %

China's maintenance of a de facto peg against the US dollar during the Asian crisis caused a realignment of exchange rates in the Asian region. This paper explores the “equilibrium”level of China's real effective rate in the lead up and during that crisis. A derivative of the Devarajan Lewis Robinson three goods general equilibrium model is employed to estimate time paths of the equilibrium real effective exchange rate under a variety of assumptions about the balance of trade.Key requirements of the model are indices of import and export prices in time series. Since these are unavailable from secondary sources they are here constructed from trade data. The results suggest that China's real effective exchange rate was on the low side in the four years prior to the crisis,due in part to an extraordinary rate of accumulation of foreign reserves. If,instead,no more than 10 per cent of annual export revenue had been set aside as reserves in this period,it is estimated that China's real effective exchange rate would have been higher by between 5 and 12 per cent.