基于时间序列线性模型的城市电力网规划方法

A new method of urban power network planning based on model of time sequence

通过对城市电力网中用电量的时间序列分析 ,建立其线性模型 .并通过模型识别与参数估计 ,得到线性模型的准确形式 .最后利用递推预报法对用电量进行长期预报 ,为城市电力网的电源开发规划及输变电设备规划提供依据 .

This paper presents a new method of urban power network planning. After analyzing the model of time sequence of electrical power consumption, mode l of it is built。Using the model Identification and Parameter Estimation, the linear model is turns out to be accurate.Finally, the long term recursive forecasting method of electrical power consumption is given, to plan the urban electrical system effectively.