从出口、消费和投资看当前国债政策

Viewing China’s Current Treasury Bond Policy in the Perspective of Exports Consumption and Investment

出口、消费和投资是促进经济增长的三大主要动力。从长期发展来看，中国加入WTO后，国际市场存在较大的不确定性，出口保持高速增长的可能性不大，靠出口来拉动内需的增长存在较大的不稳定性。出口对经济增长的净贡献率将进一步下降。随着新旧分配格局的转换，居民收入增幅开始下降，不同层次居民间收入差距拉大。储蓄特征的加强以及消费信贷市场不发达等，均不同程度降低了居民总体消费倾向，影响了消费对经济增长的促进作用。以国债为核心的积极财政政策正是在这种背景下理所当然成为政府的首选。

：Exports consumption and investment are three major driving forces of economic growth． In the long run the net contribution rate of exports to economic growth will further decrease as after China’s entry into WTO there exist great uncertainty both in international markets and China’s keeping rapid export growth which leads to the great unstability in triggering domestic demand by exports． With the change of distribution structures the growth rate of residents’income is beginning to decrease and the income gaps among different resident groups are widenning． The increasing of savings and the underdevelopment of consumption credit markets work togather against residents overall consumption propensity and the promoting role of consumption to economic growth． It is agaisnt this background that the active fiscal policy centering around treasury bonds certainly becomes the Chinese government’s first choice．