增长趋同理论简述

Review On Growth Convergence

新古典模型认为 ,由于没有技术的持续改善 ,人均产出增长最终将会停止 ,国与国之间具有趋同趋势。而内生增长模型却得出了由于知识等要素的递增收益的作用将导致国家之间的收入差距扩大的结论。经验研究表明 ,世界上只有局部趋同而没有全球范围内的趋同 ,一旦对不同的要素变量加以控制 ,将出现条件趋同。根据趋同理论 ,我们应注重导致趋同的政策研究 ,结合本国实际制定赶超战略以达到趋同的目的。

The neoclassical model argues that, in the absence of co ntinuing improvements in technology, per capita growth must eventually cease. Th ere tend to be convergence across countries. The empirical issue of income conve rgence has been concluded that there appears to be local convergence without glo bal convergence, once different factors are controlled for, the evidence then po ints to the existence of conditional convergence. Through introducing the theory , we ought to pay attention to the public policies which lead to convergence and get some inspire on developing our own economy.