南北地震带地震活动强度变化特征及其神经网络模型

Variation pattern on the seismic activity along the South-North Seismic Belt and its neural network modeling

南北地震带是中国大陆的一条主要活动地震带 ,2 0世纪以来有很多大地震集中发生在这条地震带上。为了进一步探讨南北地震带地震活动强度变化的规律并对其进行中期预测 ,在研究了南北地震带逐年最大地震强度演化特征及其机理的基础上 ,建立了南北地震带地震强度序列变化的一种模式 ,建模中采用了人工神经网络技术 ,并提出了一种简易实用的能够获得较隹预测效果的确定神经网络输入窗口大小的方法。结果表明 :南北地震带的地震活动具有强弱分期轮回的特征 ;用人工神经网络建模的预测结果与实际资料的对比检验中误差较小 。

South North Seismic Belt is a main active belt in China′s mainland region. There were many big earthquakes occurred along this belt since twentieth century. To study the variation pattern of the seismic activity along the South North Seismic Belt and to make a medium term forecast in it, a forecasting mode with the technology of artificial neural network is made in this paper. The study was conducted on the evolution of sequence of maximum earthquake magnitude along the South North Seismic Belt. Besides, a new applied way to fix on the size of network input window, which enables us to obtain better forecasting effect, is advanced. It is indicated that the strong weak cycle of seismic activity is an important feature of the South North Seismic Belt, and the error between forecasting value of NN and practical value is less, therefore this modeling can be used as the forecast modeling for the South North Seismic Belt.