我国大陆未来几年的地震形势与灾害分析

Analysis of seismic trend and seismic hazard in the forthcoming years in the continent of China

依据中国大陆的地震活动必将受到全球地震活动的制约 ,要分析中国大陆未来的地震趋势必须研究全球的地震活动的思路 ,通过对全球地震活动趋势以及近期大陆和周边地震活动的概况分析 ,认为大陆第五活跃期已基本结束 ,但并不意味着地震灾害水平随之降低 ,防震减灾任务依然严峻。

The seismic activity in the continent of China is surely controlled by the global seismic activity. For analysis of the future seismic trend in the continent of China, the global seismic activities must be studied. It is thought, from the analysis on the global seismic trend and recent seismic activity in and around the continent of China, that the fifth high seismic activity period in the continent of China is getting over, but it does not mean the level of seismic hazard will come down. So the task of earthquake preparedness and disaster reduction is still heavy.