集装箱吞吐量的动态预测研究

Study of Dynamic Forecast about Port Container Handling Capacity

针对以往文献中港口集装箱吞吐量的预测结果与实际值差距大的现象 ,提出用因果模型预测与动态补偿相结合的动态预测方法预测港口集装箱吞吐量 ,并将此方法用于对上海港集装箱吞吐量的预测 ,取得了较好的效果 。

In view of the great disparity between the forecast of Shanghai port container handling capacity and its real result, we choose a dynamic forecast method by the compensation of causality model with dynamic compensation to predict Shanghai port container handling capacity. And we forecast Shanghai port container handling capacity by using this method. We have made a satisfactory achievement, which provides a more reliable and practical way to forecast container handling capacity.