150年来中国鼠疫的医学地理评估

Medical Geographical Evaluation on 150 Years Plague Epidemic

本文根据 1 840年以来我国鼠疫病情资料 ,选择 9种反映鼠疫病情的适宜指标 ,通过对 52 2个病区县的原始数据的正态分布检验 ,确定了百分位的分级标准。利用 GIS技术 ,分县、省两级进行病情指标分级及病情空间分布分析 ,在此基础上 ,采用因子分析法确立了评价鼠疫病情的综合指标 ,并据此对全国进行了按省、区和县为单元的鼠疫病情区划。结果表明 ,我国鼠疫流行分为南、北两大区域 ,南方的广东、云南、福建、广西、海南等省区为中国历史上成片的鼠疫病情严重区 ,北方的吉林、内蒙古、陕西病情亦较严重 。

Based on the data of plague in China since 1840, nine appropriate indictors are selected, which are total number of plague, total number of plague deaths, annual average of number of plague cases, annual average plague deaths, the number of plague occurring years, the number of human plague epidemic sites during the highest incident years, total number of human plague epidemic sites, incidents times for epidemic sites of human plague, and case fatality rate. The data of nine indictors show non normal distribution through distribution tests, so we establish the standards to divide the grades for all the plague indictors by the way of percentile. The spatial distribution features of each plague indicators are studied by using GIS. Moreover, a comprehensive indicator to assess plague for different areas is made through the method of factor analyzing, which is applied for regionalization of the plague in whole China. The results indicate that there are two plague prevalent regions: north of China and south of China in the past. In south of China, Yunnan, Fujian, Guangxi and Hainan provinces were seriously prevalent plague areas; Jilin, Inner-Mongolia, Shan'xi provinces, in north of China, were also seriously prevalent plague areas. At present, almost all the plague areas are controlled, but there are still a few cases of plague in west especially in the south west of China. The comprehensive evaluation of plague will be benefit for watching out of plague prevalence and convenient for plague management according to various grades of different areas.