能源与社会经济环境协调发展的多目标决策——以江苏省为例

Multi-Objective Decision in Coordinative Development among Energy Social-Economy and Environment——A case study of Jiangsu Province

以江苏省为实际背景 ,运用多目标线性规划法 ,对能源与社会经济、环境协调发展的能源结构优化模型进行研究 。

Since the latter half of 1996,the contradiction between energy supply and demand in China has been moderating. The contents of energy development strategy have been changing from showing concern for balance between supply and demand of energy system to showing concern for the coordinative development among energy social-economy and environment. Taking Jiangsu Province for example,this thesis builds the multiobjective decision model in coordinative development among energy social-economy and environment.This model provides a useful decision method for the policymaker. The calculation shows as follows: (1)From the economic benefit point of view,nuclear power generation and wind power generation aren't able to compete with fossil fuel power generation in short term,because of the comparatively large investment in the early period of construction.In 2005,coal will stillmake up 72% of energy consumption in Jiangsu.Since then,the in crease of coal consumption will be tending to tardy along with the in crease of the expenses of preventing pollution and pollution emission limit.It is essential to lay equal stress on coal,oil and natural gas?and nuclear energy in the energy structure of Jiangsu Proince in 2020. (2)Coal still occupies an important place in energy consumption in Jiangsu.It not only tallies with the characteristics of energy resources in China, but also is economical. The key is to lay stress on developing domestic large-typed fossil fuel power plant and clean coal technologies. (3)After the year of 2005, oil and gas will increase in rapid speed. In view of limited oil and gas resources in Jiangsu and limited average resources per capita in our country, it is necessary to expand imports of oil and gas, and to develop the outward oriented energy economy based on making full use of domestic or international resources and markets. (4)Nuclear power will play an important role in promoting the coordinative developemtn among energy social-economy and environment in Jiangsu. Jiangsu possesses developed economy and technology,and has an advantage in developing nuclear power stations. But the developing speed is not at all quick. One of the nost important reasons is to worry about safety, because Jiangsu has a large population,average 700 people per square kilometre. In fact the safety of nuclear power station is indubitable. Jiangsu should unswervingly develop nuclear power generation.While constructing Tianwan nuclear power station in Lianyuangang,the second and the third phases of the project should be started as quickly as possible. (5)Jiangsu has comparatively rich wind energy resources. But their utilization is still in the olwer degree.In China wind power generation has been main attack direction of developing new energy.Jiangsu should grab at this opportunity to quicken the tempo of construction of the large and middle-sized wind power stations.