中国北方晚更新世以来地质环境及未来生存环境变化趋势

GEOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT SINCE THE LATE PLEISTOCENE AND THE FUTURE ENVIRONMENT EVOLUTION TREND FOR EXISTENCE IN NORTHERN CHINA

我国北方晚更新世以来古环境变化在总趋势上有一致性，但又有地区上的差别。青藏高原古气候变化有其特殊性，末次冰期寒冷气候开始早于其他地区；全新世暖期开始晚于其他地区１５００年左右。除受全球性气候变化影响外，青藏高原的迅速上升也是影响我国北方晚更新世以来古环境的因素之一；华北平原未来生存环境变化中水资源的变化受人类活动影响很大。目前水资源开发利用程度高，预测于２１世纪前半个世纪内缺水状况是严峻的，平原区缺水将大于８０ ｘ １０８ｍ３／ａ；我国北方在全新世大暖期后，气候环境的变化是在大暖期期间形成的环境基础上演变的。总的趋势是向以冷干为主的气候和向干旱化环境演化。

The palaeoclimate changes since the Late Pleistocene in northern China show consistency in general, but there is difference from place to place. Palaeoclimate changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau present specific characteristics, the cold climate in the last glacial period began earlier than in other places; however, the Holocene optimum started later than in other places by a time lag of about 1500 years. In addition to the global climate change, uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is also one of the affecting factors. In the changes of future environment for existence in the North China Plain, change of water resources is greatly affected by the human activities. In the light of the present development and utilization degree of water resources, it is predicted that the situation of water shortage in the first half of the twenty-first century is rather severe and before the middle of the century the water shortage in the plain area will amount to 8 x 108m3/a. The change of climate environment since the Holocene optimum in northern China evolves based on the environment formed during the Holocene optimum. The general trend of climatic changes seems to change from the cold-dry climate into arid climate.