影响上海、长江三角洲及华东地区热带气旋频数的短期气候预测

Research on Short-Term Climatic Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Frequency

热带气旋频数的异常既是全球气候异常变化的产物，又对区域或全球的气候变化产生影响。本文简要简述了影响上海、长江三角洲及华东地区热带气旋频数的标准、气候特征，具有明确物理意义和预测 价值的影响因子、及在此基础上建立的多种客观业务预测方案。主要的客观预测方案均己安装在上海区域气象中心的短期气候预测工作站上，且先后自１９９６年起投入了准业务运行。最后介绍了主（官方）、客观预测方案的性能评估方法。结果表明：客观预测方案的总体性能较攻关前的官方预测好。

The anomaly of tropical cyclone frequency (TCF ) bears relation to the anomalous change of global climate. This paper summarizes the evolutions of the criterion and climatic characteristics, and influencial factors, and the forecast scheme for the frequency of the tropical cyclone affecting Shanghai and the Changjiang River Delta and East China area. Finally, the performance evaluation methods for the subjective (official) and objective forecast schemes are introduced and the results show that the objective forecast scheme is better than the official subjective forecast during 1988-1997.