基于模糊横移限值的无缝线路稳定性可靠度

Reliability Analysis of CWR Track Stability Based on Allowable Lateral Track Displacement

无缝线路是一种新型的轨道结构 ,是轨道结构现代化的标志。无缝线路稳定性分析是无缝线路的理论基础和关键技术 ,也是无缝线路理论研究的前沿课题。国内外都非常重视无缝线路的稳定性问题 ,并进行了大量的试验和理论研究。结构可靠度理论应用于无缝线路稳定性研究在理论和实践上都是具有开创意义。无缝线路稳定性分析的设计参数 (轨道原始弯曲、道床横向阻力、轨温变化幅度 )具有明显的随机性 ,采用大量试验和统计分析基础上的概率取值更为科学合理。轨道允许横向位移是无缝线路稳定性分析的一个重要参数 ,在高温和列车横向力作用下的轨道允许横向位移对无缝线路稳定性影响很大。本文分析了轨道允许横向位移的模糊随机性 ,认为轨道允许横向位移是一个模糊变量 ,在现有试验资料的基础上 ,采用模糊变量的当量随机化方法分析了轨道允许横向位移的概率分布及统计参数。对于模糊横移条件下的无缝线路稳定性可靠度进行了随机模拟 。

CWR track is a new technique that serves as a sign of track modernization. The stability analysis of CWR track is a basic theory and a key technique of CWR track. Many countries in the world attach great importance to the stability study of CWR track. They carried out many experiments and theoretical studies. Applications of the structural reliability theory to the stability of CWR track is of pioneer significance in theory and practice. The design parameters of the stability analysis of CWR track are random variables. It is reasonable and scientific that the values of the design parameters are presented on the basis of abundant investigations and tests. The allowable lateral track displacement is an important parameter in the analysis of cwr track stability. The paper regards allowable lateral track displacement as a fuzzy variable and analyzes its fuzzy-uncertainty. By means of equivalent randomization method, fuzzy variable is substituted for random variable. The authors analyze the distribution and statistical parameter of the equivalent random variable. With random reliability analysis method, probability of failure on the stability of CWR track is simulated. By comparison and calculation this paper expounds the great influence of allowable lateral track displacement on its stability, which is of significant theoretical value.