油运费率指数的规律性分析及短期预测

The Regularity Analysis and Short-Term Forecast of Oil Freight Index

以时间序列统计分析作为基础研究手段 ,分析了不同类别油运费率指数的运行规律 ,并应用ARIMA时间序列模型对 16 0 0 0 0dwt以上的原油运费率指数进行了短期预测 ,取得了较好的预测效果。

The running regularity of freight index for different kindx of oil is studied by means of time series statistical analysis in the paper. The ARIMA time series model is applied to short term forecast of crude oil freight index for the tankers of above 16 000 dwt and good forecast results are obtained.