农牧交错带人口承载能力胁迫理论与对策研究

Theory & Measures of Population Carrying Capacity Stress in Staggered Agricultural and Pastoral Areas

本文根据 2 0 0 0—2 0 3 0年不同人口控制方案的预测结果和有关参数 ,利用构建的一个适合于区域范围人—地关系简单平衡模型 ,以 5年为时间步长 ,5%为粮食自给率步长 ,计算分析了安塞县 2 1世纪头 3 0年人口承载能力胁迫力。结果表明 ,只有严格控制人口增长 ,并在此基础上确定合理的粮食自给率 ,以保持人口承载能力胁迫力为负值或较小、较短时间内的正值 ,才能真正实现退耕还林 (草 ) ,促进生态—经济同步增长。而强调 1 0 0 %的粮食自给之基础上的“综合治理”则很难实现生态环境的改善。

The calculating analysis,which is for the carrying capacity stress of Ansai County's population in the firse 30 years of 21 century utilizing a simple balance model of men-land relationship suitable to the regional scope with the increments of 5 years for time and 5% for grain self-supply according to the predictive results and relative parameters, was taken. Its result shows that only defining the reasonable self supply rate of grain to keep the population carrying capacity stress at a negative value or a posityve value in a shorter time on the base of strictly controlling population growth, can the goals of returning farming land to the forest and pasture and promoting the growth of ecology in step with the economy be realized. While it's very difficult to achieve the improvement of ecological environment by emphasizing the “Comprehensive control” basing on 100% self supply of grain.