基础油的预测方法及应用

Forecasting method of base oil and its application.

基础油是在对外合作中经常接触到的概念 ,大致相当于老井自然产量 ,可以通过评价历史生产数据 ,分析其递减规律而获得。传统的方法是以Arps递减模型为基础 ,依据无因次典型曲线图和诺模图 ,通过复杂的人工计算和反复观察得到最佳拟合。文章以Excel数据分析、图表等为工具 ,结合具体实例 ,详细说明了基础油历史拟合和预测的每一个步骤。其中公式系数的修改是一种新的方法 ,它突破了前推或后推必须为整数单位的限制 。

Base oil is a concept always used in external cooperation, and it is analogous to the natural production of old wells roughly. It can be obtained through evaluation of historical production data and analysis of its decline rules. Traditional method may be used to get best match through complicated artificial calculation and repeated observation based on the Arps decline model, typical dimensionless curve and nomogram. Every step of history match and forecasting of the base oil is illustrated in detail combined with concrete cases and taking Excel data analysis and charts as tools in this paper. A new method revised the coefficients in formula, it breaks the restriction in which extrapolation must be an integer and has more effective and quicker operation.