国民经济增长率的自适应预报

Self-adaption prediction of national economy increase rate

根据国民经济系统的实际问题 ,应用系统辨识理论和参数递推算法 ,推导了积累效率模型中参数的计算式 ,给出了国民经济增长率的自适应预报模型 .应用结果表明 ,该方法优于一般预报方法 ,具有较高的精度 ,最大相对误差在1%以内 .

On the basis of actual problems of national economy system, using system identification theory and parameter recursive algorithm, the parameter calculation formula in accumulation efficiency model is deduced and the adaptive prediction model for national economy increase rate is given. It is proved in use that the new method has an advantage over conventional ones, the prediction model has higher precision, the maximum average error is within 1%.