铁路沿线岩溶塌陷预测模型

Prediction Model for Sinkholes along Railways

岩溶塌陷的发生受多种因素影响，每一因素都在一定程度上反映了对塌陷形成的作用，同时因素间存在一定的相关关系。以基于主成份分析提出的综合向量替代原有因素向量，消除了影响因素的信息重叠，并体现影响因素的致塌权重，在此基础上，通过马氏距离判别建立岩溶塌陷预测模型。应用结果表明，该预测模型是合理的。

The factors affecting the happening of sinkholes along railways and the relationships between the factors are analyzed. A prediction model is proposed based on main-factor-analysis and distanceestimation. In the model, the original vectors of the factors are replace by synthetic vectors to avoid redundant information and count for the weights of the factors. The feasibility of the model is proved by application.