时序递阶组合模型在冰川河流年径流量预测中的应用研究

Application of Annual Runoff Prediction with Time Series Combining Model on Ice Stream

应用时间序列分析方法，将发源于天山的奎屯河的年径流量时间序列通过趋势项、周期项和平稳随机项的识别、建模与提取，建立了时序递阶组合模型。应用该模型对奎屯河年径流量进行了预测，为新疆生产建设兵团奎屯河流域灌区水资源合理配置和优化调度提供了科学依据。

Based on the annual runoff time series on Kuitun River, a combining model of annual runoff time series has established on Kuitun River, which contains tendentious item, period item and the random series． It has applied prediction of annual runoff in the Kuitun River, and the result is satisfactory．