山东省耕地变化趋势及驱动力研究

A study on trend and driving forces of cultivated land use change in Shandong Province

根据山东省各市、县的统计资料 ,分析了山东省 5 0年代以来耕地面积变化的总体趋势、空间差异和驱动因子。结果表明 :经济发展动态、社会系统压力和农业科技进步是影响山东省耕地数量变化的三类因素。通过建立多元回归模型 ,预测出 2 0 0 5和 2 0 10年的耕地数量 ,并对研究结果应用GIS进行了空间表达。

According to the statistical and survey data at provincial and county levels, trend of cultivated land change and its driving forces in Shandong Province during the last 50 years are discussed in this paper. It was found that (a) since the 1950s, the total area of arable land and per capita availability are reducing. For example, the total area under cultivation reached its top in 1955, and declined after the year of 1955. Per capita cultivated land decreased nearly in a straight line year after year and changed from 0.192 hm 2 to 0.075 hm 2 ,and the trends of decrease will continue with further development of economy and increase of population; (b) according to the GIS spatial analysis, the movement of the gravity center and the relative change indices of the cultivated land in Shandong Province have regional differences, the change is smaller in the eastern part than that in the central-western, the distribution core of the cultivated land in the whole province has been shifted 10.62km northeastward; (c) as a result of the principal component analysis, the eight driving forces variables affecting arable land changes were analyzed which could be classified into three types, i.e., the dynamic development of economy, pressure of social system and progress of science and technology in agriculture. As to the specific factors, per capita net living space, population and yield of grain per ha are the main driving forces, which play an important role in the changing of cultivated land;(d) by using regressive equation, along with population growth and economic development, the prediction of cultivated land in Shandong Province is done for 2005 and 2010, the prediction result is that Shandong's farmland area will be 6 435.47×10 3hm2 in 2005 and 6 336.23×10 3hm 2 in 2010. The analytical results and conclusions of this paper will provide scientific basis for sustainable agricultural development in Shandong Province.