摘要
专家估计是 PRA的一个重要数据来源 ,为得到可信的估计值 ,分析人员要选择多个专家并对其估计进行综合。对影响专家估计的因素建立了层次模型 ,用 AHP对几个专家的估计进行了分析 ,给出其合理的权值 。
Expert's judgement is an important dats source for PRA. In order to ger credible data,analysts often refer to many experts and synthesize their judgements. In this paper,we constructed a hierarchy model in light of those factors influencing experts' judgement,then several experts were analyzed by the AHP and reasonable weights were presented. Finally,a simple sensitivity analysis was also carried out.
关键词
概率风险评价
层次分析法
安全性分析
AHP
probabilistic risk assessment analytic hierarchy process safety analysis
