不确定先验信息综合方法的研究

On the Aggregating Methods of Uncertainty Prior Information

贝叶斯方法是可靠性分析和可靠性预测的重要方法之一 ,贝叶斯方法估计的准确度取决于先验信息的准确度。本文对综合不确定先验信息的四种重要方法进行了介绍、分析 。

The Bayesian approach is one of important methods in the reliability analyses and reliability prediction, the veracity of Bayes estimations lies on the veracity of prior information. In the paper, 4 important methods which aggregate the prior information of uncertainty and multiple sourers are recommendal,analyzed, moreover, their applied situations and the issue are also explained.\;