农业结构变化对农业经济增长贡献的计量分析

The quantitative analysis of the contribution of the regulation of agricultural structure to the agricultural economic growth

结合中国农业发展现状 ,从增加值入手 ,分析了农、林、牧、渔业结构变化对经济增长的影响 .结果表明 ,1985 - 1997年中国农、林、牧、渔业增加值的平均增长率为 15 5 % ,农业平均贡献率为 5 3 2 2 % ,林业为 4 94% ,牧业为 30 17% ,渔业为11 6 7% .农业和畜牧业对经济增长的贡献率表现出反向波动 。

According to agricultural development status in China,and based on the concept of value added,an analysis is given of the influence of the structure regulation of farming,forestry animal husbandry and fishery on economic growth.The results indicate that,from 1985 to 1997,the per growth rate of value added of farming,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery is 15.5%,the average contrtibutive rate of farming is 53.22%,forestry being 4.94% animal husbandry 30.17%,and fishery 11.67%.The farming and the animal husbandry have converse influence on the economic growth and they change periodically.