河南人均国内生产总值预测分析

Forecast and analysis of per capita gross domestic product in Henan

运用GM(1,1)模型和经济周期理论 ,定量分析和定性分析相结合 ,对 2 0 0 1- 2 0 0 9年河南人均国内生产总值进行了预测分析 .结果表明 ,在对区域经济的发展趋势进行预测时 ,在经济周期的不同发展阶段中样本数目的选择可能会对预测结果产生显著的影响 ,对样本数据进行适当处理 。

By means of the theories of GM(1,1) model and economic cycle,with quantitative and qualitative analysis adopted,forecasts and analyses are given of the per capita gross domestic product in Henan between 2000-2009.The results indicate that in forecasting the development tndency of the regional economy in different stages of the economic cycle,the numbers of the samples selected could have obvious effects on the results.So poper processing of the data of the samples can make the results correspond with the reality.